Eliciting expectation uncertainty from private households

نویسندگان

چکیده

Recently, much attention has been devoted to measuring macroeconomic (expectation) uncertainty and its impact on aggregate economic fluctuations. This paper presents a new qualitative measure of expectation based data from German online survey consumer expectations. The design works well. Elicited is related volatility conventional measures as expected. Its dependency socioeconomic factors in line with previous evidence quantitative measures. offers very efficient way eliciting can be used obtain many different expectations at low cost.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['1872-8200', '0169-2070']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.002